Asian League · resolved market
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67ab448ba1a12d03414f20c08b1831d1263c1b4da3ad2a91446ab34b80853282
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,481 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 824.3$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.71 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 77c | 646.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 51c | 450.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 23c | 250$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 35c | 226.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.19 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad8…ca12backed Over | 26c | 211$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 24cpaid | +330.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…350cbacked Under | 74c | 211$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked Under | 27c | 181.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Over | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 125$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 1,126 | 46.3%521 W · 605 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 20c | 81.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…ac5ebacked Under | 62c | 51.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 35c | 44.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Under | 77c | 22.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…ee94backed Under | 79c | 15.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5this page
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.