Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Belmont vs. Missouri State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67d2e41951da014695804c5855e42a9a9b669f0c6c5b39f14943b020989984a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Belmontof Belmont, Missouri State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Missouri State | 47c | 530.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Belmont | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a3…2b37backed Belmont | 54c | 155$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Belmont | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e5…4188backed Missouri State | 46c | 122$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…745abacked Missouri State | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…ecd8backed Missouri State | 50c | 81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Belmont | 50c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d41…ef4dbacked Belmont | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ae…9d60backed Belmont | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…e77abacked Missouri State | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Belmont | 52c | 46.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Belmont | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…5118backed Belmont | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1328…e46ebacked Belmont | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…4c40backed Belmont | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +144.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c50…207dbacked Missouri State | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…0c84backed Belmont | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544b…a8a7backed Missouri State | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…fd27backed Missouri State | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2468…5a76backed Missouri State | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…352cbacked Missouri State | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d76…283fbacked Belmont | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb948…97d6backed Missouri State | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8d…69c0backed Belmont | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…dffdbacked Missouri State | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…5459backed Belmont | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…402cbacked Missouri State | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…57f3backed Belmont | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…41e2backed Missouri State | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…7ad7backed Belmont | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…db79backed Belmont | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.