Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Magdalena Frech vs Ella Seidel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68b03452b36b63320ec7d5077284db341f9c1b62fd987c160891fa756360460a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seidelof Frech, Seidel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Frech | 0c | 10,677$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Frech | 5c | 5,710$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.6 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Seidel | 59c | 427.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.85 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Frech | 46c | 290$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Frech | 41c | 287.85$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Frech | 50c | 254.22$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.11 | 961 | 35.4%340 W · 621 L | -40.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Frech | 19c | 242.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Seidel | 57c | 240$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Seidel | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Seidel | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Frech | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Seidel | 59c | 33.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seidel | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Frech | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.