Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6980257cdbf15dca3c7f7611f7ce4e441c933ca34b80242d81db2f6e575dda38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 25c | 499.87$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 129 | 20.2%26 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed No | 75c | 262.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 103.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…ffedbacked Yes | 27c | 73.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 75c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 75c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed No | 75c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 75c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -11.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 75c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 75c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 75c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed No | 75c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 75c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 75c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan leading at halftime?this page
- SSC Napoli leading at halftime?No won
- SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.