Olympics · resolved market
Will Summer McIntosh (CAN) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bb91bd702f534851d7d14121e8984d89f79c5e8a32aec80e9e0a3a8a6695518
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed No | 42c | 872$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Yes | 58c | 872$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 75c | 796.49$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.49 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 25c | 610.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 73c | 490$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…67e2backed Yes | 76c | 226.12$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…1771backed No | 30c | 209.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Yes | 72c | 179.11$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 74c | 164.18$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Yes | 69c | 144.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc07…1026backed No | 28c | 107.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 76c | 89.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 70c | 82.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…f2ffbacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…9328backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…8e39backed Yes | 75c | 44.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9de…5692backed Yes | 73c | 44.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…7afbbacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb43…2af4backed Yes | 73c | 35.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…cb5bbacked Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e65…11f3backed Yes | 75c | 30.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…e4b3backed Yes | 73c | 13.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…f56ebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Summer McIntosh (CAN) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly?this page
- Will Alex Shackell (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly?No won
- Will Elizabeth Dekkers (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly?No won
- Will Regan Smith (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly?No won
- Will Yufei Zhang (CHN) win Gold in Women's 200m Butterfly?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.