NHL · resolved market
AHL: Rochester Americans vs. Springfield Thunderbirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bd7f01be0e5e3f28005007a2afce0d0814377aa8f00fe70170d90f3328e8303
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Springfield Thunderbirdsof Rochester Americans, Springfield Thunderbirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 48c | 5,554$2,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,868.25 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…172fbacked Rochester Americans | 51c | 1,932$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.29 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked Rochester Americans | 54c | 1,237$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.04 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 48c | 1,049$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.36 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Rochester Americans | 50c | 984.55$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.28 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…b650backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 48c | 970.82$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7e…3d45backed Rochester Americans | 52c | 786.67$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Rochester Americans | 50c | 462.88$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.44 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Rochester Americans | 50c | 415.11$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.53 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rochester Americans | 51c | 351.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.08 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 50c | 350$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Rochester Americans | 53c | 323.61$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.51 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Rochester Americans | 50c | 272.71$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Rochester Americans | 53c | 265.78$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Rochester Americans | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…f862backed Rochester Americans | 52c | 166$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1597…6edebacked Rochester Americans | 10c | 162.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Rochester Americans | 53c | 100.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 51c | 97.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…838bbacked Rochester Americans | 52c | 84.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 50c | 71.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Rochester Americans | 52c | 64.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 69c | 58.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 48c | 58.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Rochester Americans | 52c | 58.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Rochester Americans | 48c | 53.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…5853backed Rochester Americans | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Rochester Americans | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Rochester Americans | 53c | 31.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed Rochester Americans | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…2f08backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 63c | 22.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.