NHL · resolved market
AHL: San Jose Barracuda vs. Ontario Reign
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bed9eb453487707b66670d37eaa825aa1acfb4ebdd368e6a84f5d7bf949cb25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Jose Barracudaof San Jose Barracuda, Ontario Reign
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Ontario Reign | 49c | 173$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Ontario Reign | 49c | 143$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Ontario Reign | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Ontario Reign | 49c | 94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Ontario Reign | 49c | 91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Ontario Reign | 49c | 76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Ontario Reign | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Ontario Reign | 47c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed San Jose Barracuda | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed San Jose Barracuda | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Ontario Reign | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked San Jose Barracuda | 52c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Ontario Reign | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Ontario Reign | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed San Jose Barracuda | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Ontario Reign | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Ontario Reign | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed San Jose Barracuda | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked San Jose Barracuda | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Ontario Reign | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked San Jose Barracuda | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed San Jose Barracuda | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Ontario Reign | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Ontario Reign | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked San Jose Barracuda | 52c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed San Jose Barracuda | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked San Jose Barracuda | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed San Jose Barracuda | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Ontario Reign | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked San Jose Barracuda | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked San Jose Barracuda | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed San Jose Barracuda | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed San Jose Barracuda | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.