College Football · resolved market
Spread: Northern Illinois (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cf1fb261141dccdd7688ae0a5cfe8a975fcfcae288537ed64e1134fef0532da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kent State Golden Flashesof Northern Illinois, Kent State Golden Flashes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 50c | 5,974$2,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,986.75 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Northern Illinois | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 49c | 3,559$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.09 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e77…4505backed Northern Illinois | 51c | 137$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 49c | 104.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Northern Illinois | 50c | 77.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 47c | 67.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Kent State Golden Flashes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Northern Illinois | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Northern Illinois | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…1818backed Kent State Golden Flashes | 50c | 27.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5363…fcb2backed Northern Illinois | 53c | 21.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Northern Illinois (-4.5)this page
- Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Northern IllinoisKent State Golden Flashes won
- Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Northern Illinois: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Northern Illinois (-5.5)Kent State Golden Flashes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.