Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Denver vs. UMKC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e6ce97488622b515388237c0768f5aa4d84aa9d71e95bfddc53a966f0cd2351
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UMKCof Denver, UMKC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed UMKC | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Denver | 24c | 178$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf650…a2cebacked Denver | 25c | 134$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…f8bbbacked Denver | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked UMKC | 73c | 119.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce94…7bb0backed UMKC | 50c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb73d…0b78backed UMKC | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…47d0backed Denver | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…8f5cbacked UMKC | 75c | 83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cd…ee14backed UMKC | 75c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc8…00f1backed Denver | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d2…7c79backed Denver | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…e763backed UMKC | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdb…23a4backed UMKC | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…96e9backed Denver | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5a…11e9backed UMKC | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca5…5f4fbacked UMKC | 33c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef6…0e32backed UMKC | 33c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…b936backed UMKC | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1da…5808backed Denver | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9defbacked Denver | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…8680backed UMKC | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942a…35eabacked Denver | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fc…770cbacked Denver | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…156ebacked Denver | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e01…6846backed Denver | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…bab7backed Denver | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…b162backed UMKC | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef7…f680backed UMKC | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…177abacked UMKC | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9501…4e65backed Denver | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…3849backed UMKC | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a76…1c13backed UMKC | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…df07backed Denver | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…f53bbacked Denver | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd29…dfe3backed Denver | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.