Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Jacksonville vs. Central Arkansas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f117a194edee3e989ed0c3bf70f83bcce697bfab0f8e123f45e5d911c8af272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jacksonvilleof Jacksonville, Central Arkansas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Central Arkansas | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…5093backed Central Arkansas | 16c | 113$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9172…4731backed Central Arkansas | 18c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b2…fbefbacked Jacksonville | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…9538backed Central Arkansas | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 48cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc469…9ff6backed Jacksonville | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…9a34backed Central Arkansas | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…720cbacked Jacksonville | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f0…4556backed Central Arkansas | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b79…5281backed Jacksonville | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f1…1952backed Central Arkansas | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…b745backed Jacksonville | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd16…7467backed Central Arkansas | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf665…b626backed Central Arkansas | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2a…9deabacked Jacksonville | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…57e5backed Central Arkansas | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…4769backed Central Arkansas | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd149…4156backed Jacksonville | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…fffebacked Central Arkansas | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f7…10b7backed Jacksonville | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…70a1backed Central Arkansas | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.