Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or below on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f74a8cf3b54f83d46ede80835f501964c757d2284c283cdfe5d5ed18a849980
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 72c | 1,111$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.37 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 28c | 512.12$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 21c | 452.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 10c | 269.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 8c | 234.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 226.32$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 219.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 194.7$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55d…2c36backed Yes | 33c | 172.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc5…af1cbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 9.2%7 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 9c | 132$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16aa…dff7backed Yes | 13c | 92.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 82.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…f943backed Yes | 13c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce5…5fb6backed Yes | 15c | 81.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked No | 65c | 79.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 77.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 37c | 74.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…fba3backed Yes | 37c | 54.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46c…8ce2backed Yes | 61c | 49.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 36c | 40.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 78c | 40.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 53c | 38.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed No | 48c | 36.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…c90abacked No | 57c | 34.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed No | 78c | 29.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 74c | 20.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed Yes | 51c | 20.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 78c | 19.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 71c | 18.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or below on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or higher on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.