Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Fresno State vs. Nevada
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fedcb3e4e7543a4debf6e6eece600eafd4c0b143964c0ac23179f48b303b0dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nevadaof Fresno State, Nevada
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Fresno State | 10c | 168.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b1…1ac2backed Fresno State | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…8213backed Nevada | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe230…30c7backed Fresno State | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…b7a1backed Fresno State | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd149…4156backed Nevada | 61c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d4…10bfbacked Fresno State | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6a…da2abacked Nevada | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x119b…a085backed Nevada | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…2bcbbacked Fresno State | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…031abacked Nevada | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…87a6backed Fresno State | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c0…ec6fbacked Nevada | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…1034backed Fresno State | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec5…a31cbacked Nevada | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614c…140abacked Fresno State | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3932…aba3backed Nevada | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…c2adbacked Fresno State | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985a…7bb7backed Nevada | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…8ec3backed Nevada | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…d1b8backed Fresno State | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5105…125abacked Fresno State | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2491…bd80backed Nevada | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…a633backed Nevada | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…5960backed Nevada | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3f…8862backed Fresno State | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…d290backed Nevada | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.