Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: SK Nebula vs Twisted Minds Orchid (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x701091886a7f904d00dc5ae41b6d20092e8a76a9713cf3958cf752b6084658e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twisted Minds Orchidof SK Nebula, Twisted Minds Orchid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e15…7531backed SK Nebula | 47c | 1,253$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.06 | 333 | 48.3%161 W · 172 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0499…b310backed SK Nebula | 45c | 240$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 235 | 48.5%114 W · 121 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a20…237cbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 55c | 230$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 54c | 228.93$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.31 | 184 | 57.1%105 W · 79 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…d30fbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…c192backed SK Nebula | 45c | 210$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 52c | 164.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…10febacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…57dfbacked SK Nebula | 42c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…846ebacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 56c | 89.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…eb01backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 58c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…ff77backed SK Nebula | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…986bbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 58c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ff…c1fbbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked SK Nebula | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked SK Nebula | 44c | 69.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 257 | 45.9%118 W · 139 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked SK Nebula | 43c | 60.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…47edbacked SK Nebula | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…be24backed SK Nebula | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed SK Nebula | 45c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed SK Nebula | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3810…a252backed SK Nebula | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c38…a15abacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.