Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Yexin Ma vs Varvara Lepchenko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7114449f62b9c6cba54c3b700b01fb61d516c89125425965ecce58878b641ca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maof Ma, Lepchenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Lepchenko | 1c | 3,723$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Lepchenko | 33c | 238$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ma | 40c | 225$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Lepchenko | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…5d79backed Lepchenko | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Ma | 61c | 145.38$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ma | 70c | 110.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Ma | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Lepchenko | 59c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1,161 | 44.3%514 W · 647 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Ma | 39c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Ma | 39c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Ma | 39c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ma | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…33bfbacked Lepchenko | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Ma | 73c | 19.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Yexin Ma vs Varvara Lepchenkothis page
- Ma vs. Lepchenko: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Ma vs LepchenkoMa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.