Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Green Bay Phoenix (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x718e56c3cb0f5ae4b66c437c4f25b82855e806f3435290b823c315486944b0bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Green Bay Phoenixof Green Bay Phoenix, IU Indy Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 41c | 13,107$5,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,684.34 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed IU Indy Jaguars | 56c | 7,080$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed IU Indy Jaguars | 61c | 6,796$4,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,141.05 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…0a10backed Green Bay Phoenix | 40c | 404.22$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Green Bay Phoenix | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed IU Indy Jaguars | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed IU Indy Jaguars | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed IU Indy Jaguars | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed IU Indy Jaguars | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed IU Indy Jaguars | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Green Bay Phoenix | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Green Bay Phoenix | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Green Bay Phoenix | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Green Bay Phoenix | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Green Bay Phoenix | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Green Bay Phoenix | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Green Bay Phoenix | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bbe8backed Green Bay Phoenix | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Green Bay Phoenix (-1.5)this page
- Green Bay Phoenix vs. IU Indy JaguarsGreen Bay Phoenix won
- Green Bay Phoenix vs. IU Indy Jaguars: O/U 166.5Under won
- Green Bay Phoenix vs. IU Indy Jaguars: O/U 167.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.