College Football · resolved market
California vs. SMU
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71a1778cdd72b44ee4eb387850523658ab5baf590b84df38b300e04b3753dee2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMUof California, SMU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed California | 22c | 461.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…e5a0backed California | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed California | 17c | 144.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked California | 18c | 129$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked SMU | 74c | 46.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…16f3backed SMU | 80c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f52…c254backed SMU | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked SMU | 79c | 19.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.