Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Mt. St. Mary's vs. Niagara
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x735352574f1f9039b8df0efbee66f6fa3803281ff39bc7d8fcb3a390064205e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mt. St. Mary'sof Mt. St. Mary's, Niagara
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Niagara | 40c | 4,234$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.04 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mt. St. Mary's | 63c | 2,001$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.8 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed Mt. St. Mary's | 50c | 2,000$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Niagara | 41c | 1,523$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.67 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 1,500$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Niagara | 51c | 730$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.3 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Niagara | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Mt. St. Mary's | 75c | 264.08$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Niagara | 53c | 215$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed Mt. St. Mary's | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5daa…1178backed Niagara | 54c | 107$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Niagara | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Mt. St. Mary's | 49c | 65.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Mt. St. Mary's | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa749…c9c3backed Mt. St. Mary's | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Niagara | 53c | 50.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Niagara | 51c | 50.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Niagara | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…7da4backed Mt. St. Mary's | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Niagara | 55c | 45.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa781…566dbacked Niagara | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc10…da6ebacked Mt. St. Mary's | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…b05ebacked Mt. St. Mary's | 41c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…d61fbacked Mt. St. Mary's | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…6525backed Mt. St. Mary's | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed Mt. St. Mary's | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7f…1bd6backed Mt. St. Mary's | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…c745backed Niagara | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb245…7631backed Niagara | 53c | 28.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Mt. St. Mary's | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…f463backed Mt. St. Mary's | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b87…a410backed Niagara | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mt. St. Mary's | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…e0adbacked Niagara | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf36…223bbacked Niagara | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…65ebbacked Niagara | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f77…6106backed Niagara | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca0…c95ebacked Niagara | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.