Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Toledo vs. Kent State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7390ec712ba9982f9e7421595a955f09e3b9266b85a268be6517806db146dcd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kent Stateof Toledo, Kent State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Toledo | 23c | 1,078$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.94 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfb…cbb3backed Kent State | 77c | 191$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86a…6400backed Kent State | 77c | 162$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…6692backed Kent State | 77c | 158$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…ecd8backed Toledo | 27c | 129$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x377b…84b5backed Kent State | 77c | 116$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a2…15fabacked Kent State | 71c | 106$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc67…18c5backed Kent State | 71c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 48cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…9538backed Toledo | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 48cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c24…2bd9backed Kent State | 77c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef0…a024backed Kent State | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe359…2feabacked Kent State | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +102%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…8547backed Kent State | 73c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ee17backed Toledo | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…f44bbacked Toledo | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…0075backed Toledo | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb40…4cfcbacked Toledo | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…6cb3backed Toledo | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ae…9d60backed Kent State | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…e77abacked Kent State | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b97…1ff5backed Kent State | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf55…dc24backed Kent State | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…77dfbacked Kent State | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…2903backed Kent State | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8c…63e2backed Kent State | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf9…c581backed Kent State | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb872…54afbacked Kent State | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f4…f23fbacked Kent State | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…3f15backed Kent State | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…ea9fbacked Kent State | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ab…df4cbacked Kent State | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e9…fc0ebacked Kent State | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf160…6996backed Kent State | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ade…8a58backed Kent State | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…9776backed Kent State | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…41d7backed Kent State | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…07b1backed Kent State | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ae…df8bbacked Kent State | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…e348backed Kent State | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…a3bfbacked Kent State | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x295d…e917backed Kent State | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…3610backed Kent State | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…a80cbacked Kent State | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ff…29f1backed Kent State | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ef…cf05backed Kent State | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa219…8b3bbacked Kent State | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…57f3backed Kent State | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000e…95f8backed Kent State | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5731…33a7backed Kent State | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588f…9093backed Kent State | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf90b…f126backed Kent State | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x688a…9d6cbacked Kent State | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.