Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Valinor vs Team Lynx (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73fd8832b07d7e3c3263062c11933d79c60a6fa2f77477f0e31e022e1ba14214
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Valinor, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Valinor | 21c | 2,514$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.35 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Lynx | 79c | 2,048$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.38 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Team Lynx | 80c | 253.86$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Team Lynx | 80c | 210$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…23c6backed Valinor | 24c | 169.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Valinor | 11c | 112.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7c…df06backed Team Lynx | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6964backed Valinor | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Valinor | 27c | 64.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb249…d7ebbacked Team Lynx | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f1…84c0backed Valinor | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Team Lynx | 72c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Team Lynx | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…fa01backed Team Lynx | 79c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…5cf8backed Team Lynx | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Valinor vs Team Lynx (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Valinor vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.