Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
IPFW vs. Cleveland State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x741f00714c95f0e0a14889eb6be64bbac4698c7b30d88a652b76210407dbd32b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Stateof IPFW, Cleveland State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fce…3fb0backed Cleveland State | 50c | 216$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…a167backed IPFW | 50c | 171$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…cdb1backed IPFW | 50c | 135$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3285…0791backed Cleveland State | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c9…b992backed IPFW | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…328fbacked Cleveland State | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Cleveland State | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e9…aeefbacked IPFW | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75b…3a02backed Cleveland State | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2e…32bfbacked IPFW | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…a191backed Cleveland State | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…7215backed Cleveland State | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3660…33a1backed Cleveland State | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc7…84d7backed IPFW | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb06…e2b9backed Cleveland State | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962b…105fbacked Cleveland State | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa285…cd09backed IPFW | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e3…0535backed Cleveland State | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b86…f6d3backed IPFW | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.