Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Paolini (-1.5) vs Sonmez (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x744765ef05d93fc94974a90d4699626f7e6274ece03854c487fd7a4c6981ae9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonmezof Paolini, Sonmez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Paolini | 39c | 260.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…626dbacked Sonmez | 61c | 227.34$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 279 | 36.2%101 W · 178 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d9…3d1fbacked Paolini | 56c | 194.72$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sonmez | 44c | 177.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.58 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Sonmez | 60c | 126.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Sonmez | 77c | 53.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Sonmez | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed Paolini | 55c | 48.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Sonmez | 48c | 38.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Sonmez | 45c | 28.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Paolini | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Sonmez | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…bd20backed Paolini | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Paolini | 53c | 20.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Paolini | 53c | 20.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Paolini (-1.5) vs Sonmez (+1.5)this page
- Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Zeynep Sonmez vs Jasmine PaoliniZeynep Sonmez won
- Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs PaoliniSonmez won
- Sonmez vs. Paolini: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sonmez vs. Paolini: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sonmez vs. Paolini: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Zeynep Sonmez vs. Jasmine Paolini: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.