Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova Men: Dan Added vs Goncalo Marques
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74a003d711e44bb3ec62cdd5bf410dbdaa5fca9652f90848a630030fa4268098
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dan Addedof Dan Added, Goncalo Marques
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Dan Added | 48c | 4,719$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.34 | 251 | 44.6%112 W · 139 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Goncalo Marques | 50c | 2,890$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.11 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Goncalo Marques | 5c | 2,744$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Goncalo Marques | 38c | 789.64$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 300 | 53.7%161 W · 139 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Goncalo Marques | 54c | 375$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…ca0ebacked Dan Added | 70c | 308.17$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Dan Added | 72c | 302.42$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Dan Added | 42c | 257.05$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.32 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…7633backed Goncalo Marques | 46c | 232.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Dan Added | 63c | 180.93$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Dan Added | 59c | 64.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Dan Added | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 331 | 34.7%115 W · 216 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Dan Added | 66c | 44.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Dan Added | 50c | 31.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Dan Added | 73c | 22.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Goncalo Marques | 50c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…3d5cbacked Dan Added | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 303 | 53.5%162 W · 141 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Goncalo Marques | 58c | 18.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Goncalo Marques | 58c | 18.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 425 | 46.4%197 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova Men: Dan Added vs Goncalo Marquesthis page
- ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova Men: Completed Match: Dan Added vs Goncalo MarquesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.