UFC · resolved market
UFC 317 Parlay: Oliveira + Kara-France
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75112f2ce08dd1ec76a66323eb2e75a45ff79152d152ad5e7feae5fab8813bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 9c | 5,138$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bee…4bc4backed Yes | 10c | 1,979$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…c457backed Yes | 10c | 1,041$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 8c | 859.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…c876backed Yes | 9c | 570.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 8c | 506.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Yes | 8c | 343.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…96d6backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…b600backed Yes | 9c | 188.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…a08cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.