Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on February 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x751b50196f407ab09a15fe15827f1376f0ffb85ea1cf27117634e554cb30e01e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 27c | 265.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 11c | 134.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 129.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 10c | 128.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 114.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…a5bfbacked Yes | 28c | 94.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 15c | 75.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 69c | 72.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 32c | 37.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81f1…02dfbacked Yes | 36c | 29.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 68c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…2356backed No | 76c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…309cbacked No | 77c | 24.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…260fbacked No | 67c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 76c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed No | 68c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 16.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on February 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or higher on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on February 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C on February 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C or below on February 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.