Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
California vs. Louisville
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x777258335911f704caea6e8362f5b8410abec5698ed7b3b193f17013795d0df2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisvilleof California, Louisville
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31d8…c4e9backed California | 12c | 299$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed California | 11c | 270$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Louisville | 70c | 183$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…acccbacked California | 17c | 183$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb320…03b8backed California | 11c | 182$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…c631backed California | 16c | 163$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…b01abacked California | 11c | 163$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca90…2938backed California | 18c | 145$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…7daebacked California | 17c | 137$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca56…e808backed California | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…a2cebacked California | 15c | 103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…f2fdbacked California | 16c | 95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59f2…5c11backed California | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…9a9dbacked California | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1360…9874backed California | 18c | 78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.