Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77dd4bfb446d719d1de1ce5440096cda0c6f11e0ffcc6ccb8cfbc2ca37c45205
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 9c | 2,352$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.46 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 19c | 2,316$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.02 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 77c | 1,231$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 19c | 1,208$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.7 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…9d94backed Yes | 80c | 810.34$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 24c | 774.74$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.85 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 19c | 699.85$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.47 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba79…4c9ebacked No | 29c | 680.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 12c | 643.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 77c | 425.53$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed Yes | 78c | 224.01$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 21c | 189.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 16c | 170$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 21c | 149.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b4…169bbacked Yes | 71c | 140.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 18c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 44.4%96 W · 120 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 20c | 92.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 19c | 87.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…3e56backed Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Yes | 74c | 67.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2346…48d0backed No | 22c | 64.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 19c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 25c | 55.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed No | 22c | 54.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked No | 28c | 50.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4e…eb4ebacked No | 23c | 45.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 26c | 40.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Yes | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 78c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 137 | 70.8%97 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…38cdbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c9…0dfebacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…1e9abacked Yes | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de4…b2f8backed Yes | 80c | 18.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…eec6backed Yes | 79c | 18.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…6fd9backed Yes | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…b97cbacked Yes | 79c | 16.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…101abacked Yes | 79c | 16.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…3182backed Yes | 79c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a98…13cabacked Yes | 80c | 13.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bd…0186backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-03?this page
- Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-01-03?No won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.