CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix (BO3) - Esplay Elite Gaming Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x789ea4aa4c31db3050902ee09af877f5de878f559533f37e2b4a45494709fcdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2 Aresof G2 Ares, Lilmix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked G2 Ares | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lilmix | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.01 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lilmix | 45c | 872.57$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.38 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed G2 Ares | 54c | 699.43$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.69 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Lilmix | 43c | 314.33$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.42 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Lilmix | 45c | 253.24$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -14.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed G2 Ares | 55c | 209.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Lilmix | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Lilmix | 36c | 190.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b21…4b63backed G2 Ares | 56c | 182.8$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 119 | 47.9%57 W · 62 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Lilmix | 44c | 128.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked G2 Ares | 56c | 88.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lilmix | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…749cbacked G2 Ares | 55c | 49.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked G2 Ares | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked G2 Ares | 54c | 39.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Lilmix | 38c | 36.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked G2 Ares | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed G2 Ares | 51c | 28.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 172 | 57.6%99 W · 73 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix (BO3) - Esplay Elite Gaming Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 1 WinnerG2 Ares won
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 2 WinnerG2 Ares won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.