Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
San José State vs. Colorado State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78abc63d62078c9c3ddd3907a58b5bffe454cffddd426ebde361aabe64d4f259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Stateof San José State, Colorado State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e2b…1206backed Colorado State | 50c | 582$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Colorado State | 80c | 461.95$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked San José State | 7c | 450$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1d…3ab4backed San José State | 50c | 298$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…6035backed San José State | 9c | 234$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc20…6f89backed San José State | 11c | 225$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d20…4ec1backed San José State | 12c | 195$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…5fe7backed San José State | 7c | 176$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Colorado State | 64c | 147$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…e61abacked San José State | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5a…87e2backed San José State | 9c | 139$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf76…6a58backed San José State | 8c | 139$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…1c93backed San José State | 9c | 137$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467b…66ecbacked San José State | 50c | 124$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…ca6bbacked San José State | 14c | 115$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…5af9backed San José State | 50c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b26…0b73backed San José State | 16c | 104$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f6…830dbacked San José State | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…049bbacked Colorado State | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…8924backed San José State | 26c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…9deebacked San José State | 26c | 84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6876…49b6backed San José State | 14c | 74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fad…05e4backed Colorado State | 74c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…6977backed San José State | 50c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…81cbbacked San José State | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc3…3f91backed San José State | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…29fabacked San José State | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…bbdfbacked San José State | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…77e9backed Colorado State | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7912…fa94backed Colorado State | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…de5cbacked Colorado State | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c0…92c5backed Colorado State | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…7db7backed Colorado State | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…9dfdbacked Colorado State | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…5397backed Colorado State | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e2…deeabacked Colorado State | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…d703backed Colorado State | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.