Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79d9fed3fcd1398f37c6847285cd56d55d125791362ee88919fc4ddcaf35966b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 7,443$3,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,690.53 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 40c | 7,145$2,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,287.4 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked No | 1c | 2,160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.99 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 61c | 1,152$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.37 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 32c | 1,080$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.95 | 135 | 28.9%39 W · 96 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 60c | 941.39$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.2 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 60c | 915.46$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.14 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 34c | 881.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.94 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 61c | 735.9$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.9 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 39c | 639.73$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.32 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked No | 11c | 413.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 36c | 351.64$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.63 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 62c | 333.1$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.66 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.7 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 20c | 138.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked No | 11c | 133.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 65c | 132.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 15c | 117.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +12.8wins | +0.16per pick | 16cpaid | +246%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked No | 67c | 111.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd006…6a03backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed No | 65c | 38.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecd…1898backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…a568backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 76c | 27.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 66c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 65c | 21.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 143 | 60.8%87 W · 56 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd861…931abacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…b5a9backed Yes | 65c | 18.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will AVS Futebol vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?No won
- Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.