Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tauste: Aryan Shah vs Louis Larue
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7af48b00f1058deac0e0bb1834357570abf987d681f45f4de9706bb6b91d7d7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aryan Shahof Aryan Shah, Louis Larue
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Louis Larue | 24c | 279.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Louis Larue | 38c | 224.35$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Aryan Shah | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Louis Larue | 58c | 73.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Aryan Shah | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Aryan Shah | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Aryan Shah | 42c | 59.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 429 | 46.4%199 W · 230 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Aryan Shah | 78c | 56.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Louis Larue | 32c | 50.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aryan Shah | 70c | 41.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Aryan Shah | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Aryan Shah | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Aryan Shah | 64c | 39.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 323 | 29.7%96 W · 227 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…d97cbacked Aryan Shah | 44c | 36.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Aryan Shah | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Aryan Shah | 70c | 27.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 474 | 53.2%252 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Aryan Shah | 74c | 25.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…5cccbacked Aryan Shah | 51c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Louis Larue | 58c | 17.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 350 | 39.4%138 W · 212 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Aryan Shah | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…5e60backed Aryan Shah | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…076ebacked Aryan Shah | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.