Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Milwaukee vs. Cleveland State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b7c0fd1f637bf94831c58373116eb232179cc3cb6bec98dab5fde79754ffcf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Stateof Milwaukee, Cleveland State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0b4…4f8cbacked Cleveland State | 50c | 146$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…f3c6backed Milwaukee | 50c | 146$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc258…d51fbacked Cleveland State | 50c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1b…c5f9backed Milwaukee | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…2bcbbacked Milwaukee | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07bf…dd92backed Cleveland State | 50c | 76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x111e…b2cbbacked Milwaukee | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa536…a2e0backed Cleveland State | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…ba9fbacked Milwaukee | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…5f40backed Cleveland State | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…f1a3backed Milwaukee | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…f038backed Cleveland State | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…57a8backed Cleveland State | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…3cfbbacked Milwaukee | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…7fe3backed Cleveland State | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…e991backed Cleveland State | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…6214backed Milwaukee | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.