Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Abilene Christian vs. UT Arlington
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b8eee4019bc5af7b9568778fe3dba502c724b583fc36c724cece23675bd103d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Abilene Christianof Abilene Christian, UT Arlington
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked UT Arlington | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked UT Arlington | 46c | 317$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.85 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…669fbacked Abilene Christian | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf468…6638backed Abilene Christian | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe5…91e3backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…6006backed UT Arlington | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…5ba9backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb526…abebbacked Abilene Christian | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1409…2092backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c12…5999backed Abilene Christian | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cce…8fa8backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…effebacked Abilene Christian | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7932…ace3backed Abilene Christian | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.