Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Fairfield vs. Siena
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bfb8a36ea9a5a842d5dd0665b40a9ad7fb4368f103f9ce73cb90e7de9f427f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sienaof Fairfield, Siena
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb27b…1bccbacked Fairfield | 27c | 91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…8225backed Fairfield | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Siena | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefbe…26b4backed Siena | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c2…4420backed Siena | 73c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…e2edbacked Fairfield | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…27d0backed Fairfield | 38c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f66…53b5backed Siena | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…be36backed Fairfield | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…f8d0backed Fairfield | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb71…d73abacked Siena | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…c33fbacked Siena | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c7…e50cbacked Fairfield | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc14c…cb1fbacked Siena | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…688ebacked Siena | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…765bbacked Siena | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…dbd9backed Siena | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1c13backed Siena | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…bc17backed Siena | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9732backed Siena | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…b693backed Siena | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa830…e4b3backed Siena | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2c…7dd6backed Siena | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.