Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Pacific Tigers vs. California Golden Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bfbbfe049ce9a278c2eb3b1f57c6b6c0c2d1ae8bd058c1478097d473c02e561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- California Golden Bearsof Pacific Tigers, California Golden Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacific Tigers | 9c | 4,079$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.87 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Pacific Tigers | 12c | 1,875$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Pacific Tigers | 17c | 912.74$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.32 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Pacific Tigers | 22c | 800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pacific Tigers | 10c | 731.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacific Tigers | 17c | 681.44$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pacific Tigers | 8c | 613.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Pacific Tigers | 20c | 467$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Pacific Tigers | 10c | 331$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Pacific Tigers | 6c | 276$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacific Tigers | 10c | 246.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Pacific Tigers | 10c | 224.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Pacific Tigers | 8c | 196$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Pacific Tigers | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Pacific Tigers | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacific Tigers vs. California Golden Bearsthis page
- Spread: California Golden Bears (-10.5)Pacific Tigers won
- Spread: California Golden Bears (-11.5)Pacific Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.