Fifa International · resolved market
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c12e8eb3e97ee9732afe0692873421c8afce7c78fc2b6864440dd7bd6f80861
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 43c | 270.19$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.71 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 50c | 214.17$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed No | 50c | 190.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770d…ca11backed Yes | 56c | 177.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 43c | 162.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cd…e77cbacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f0…72b9backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 56c | 66.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b8…3f4ebacked No | 44c | 55.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…db24backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed Yes | 51c | 43.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…9633backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…ac32backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 51c | 25.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked Yes | 50c | 20.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 452 | 54.6%247 W · 205 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shotsthis page
- Bernardo Silva: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bernardo Silva: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bernardo Silva: 3+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assistsYes won
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shotsYes won
- Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assistsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalsYes won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goalsYes won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goalsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Francisco Conceição: 1+ assistsNo won
- Francisco Conceição: 1+ goalsNo won
- Francisco Conceição: 3+ goalsNo won
- Francisco Conceição: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goalsNo won
- Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goalsNo won
- Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goalsNo won
- Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- João Félix: 1+ assistsNo won
- João Félix: 1+ goalsNo won
- João Félix: 2+ assistsNo won
- João Félix: 2+ goalsNo won
- João Félix: 2+ shotsYes won
- João Félix: 3+ goalsNo won
- João Félix: 3+ shotsYes won
- João Félix: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Pedro Neto: 1+ assistsNo won
- Pedro Neto: 1+ goalsNo won
- Pedro Neto: 2+ assistsNo won
- Pedro Neto: 3+ goalsNo won
- Pedro Neto: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Rafael Leão: 1+ goalsYes won
- Rafael Leão: 3+ goalsNo won
- Rafael Leão: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Rúben Neves: 1+ goalsNo won
- Rúben Neves: 2+ goalsNo won
- Rúben Neves: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Samu Costa: 3+ goalsNo won
- Samu Costa: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Trincão: 3+ goalsNo won
- Trincão: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.