CS2 · resolved market
PGL Astana: Aurora vs. FURIA
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c1d58c238154ec07b31ea67d8f9154372ac340a95e8e4fef45aacd8d31060c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, FURIA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked FURIA | 44c | 3,386$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.7 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed FURIA | 42c | 2,896$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.07 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked FURIA | 44c | 2,151$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.32 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked Aurora | 57c | 1,710$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.61 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aurora | 55c | 1,700$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.99 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Aurora | 58c | 1,589$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.45 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…901abacked Aurora | 56c | 1,189$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.47 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Aurora | 54c | 1,021$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.66 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Aurora | 59c | 924.98$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.16 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed FURIA | 63c | 800$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked FURIA | 45c | 536.5$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.43 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed FURIA | 46c | 415.04$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Aurora | 21c | 392.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.37 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 80c | 278.76$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…55c4backed Aurora | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed FURIA | 10c | 241.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bf…e42ebacked Aurora | 60c | 240.77$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…97b6backed Aurora | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed FURIA | 49c | 160.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Aurora | 30c | 125$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed FURIA | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…5318backed FURIA | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked Aurora | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0e…c771backed FURIA | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed FURIA | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed FURIA | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Aurora | 54c | 36.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8761…7936backed Aurora | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked FURIA | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.