Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Siena Saints vs. Brown Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e1071e2855986fb46487a9053716e91588d5a64a13102704ebd0c8fdb7f35e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Siena Saintsof Siena Saints, Brown Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Brown Bears | 43c | 1,400$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Siena Saints | 58c | 1,032$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.49 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Siena Saints | 68c | 993.97$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Brown Bears | 32c | 657.87$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.52 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Brown Bears | 34c | 364$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Siena Saints | 57c | 107.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Brown Bears | 47c | 61.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Siena Saints | 63c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Siena Saints | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 80 | 7.5%6 W · 74 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…cab9backed Siena Saints | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…561fbacked Brown Bears | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.