Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fb7b8bab87d9f7f5dc41e250703626f907321138d9217fd177becf225635a42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 2,590$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Over | 60c | 1,322$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 60c | 1,042$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.71 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 54c | 504.63$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.63 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 39c | 160$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 40c | 130.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 39c | 119$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 39c | 107$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 39c | 99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 39c | 99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 39c | 88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 39c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 39c | 69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Over | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Over | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Over | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Over | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Over | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Over | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Over | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Over | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Over | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Over | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Over | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 62c | 21.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Over | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Over | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Over | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.