MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x809f9095a5a1aac96f0a1549a2680c151701a40e3b03c3c733c927d4cdae3fc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 2,069$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 1,407$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.62 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 771.99$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Detroit Tigers | 34c | 153.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 148 | 63.5%94 W · 54 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bd…2182backed Detroit Tigers | 33c | 142.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…d015backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 82.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…47d8backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785a…103cbacked Detroit Tigers | 35c | 41.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…b9acbacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Braves vs. TigersBraves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.