Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
California-San Diego Tritons vs. Bradley Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8329537bcc03d7b52ccff7dc0785ff7d3e21cc1d4a3ab0217503f9bba3cff41a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- California-San Diego Tritonsof California-San Diego Tritons, Bradley Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Bradley Braves | 58c | 1,504$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.13 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 42c | 1,504$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.13 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f0…1b00backed Bradley Braves | 60c | 68.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfef…0ababacked Bradley Braves | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…887fbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c2…e2c5backed Bradley Braves | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…561fbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Bradley Braves | 39c | 26.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Bradley Braves | 50c | 22.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed California-San Diego Tritons | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed California-San Diego Tritons | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.