Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83490111af08b694395156ccc84e3b07b1ee07148f714db5ea18109b871a4cf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Winter Bear, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Winter Bear | 43c | 1,920$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.14 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Winter Bear | 41c | 1,340$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.75 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 960.18$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 548.74$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.21 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 529.61$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.41 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Nemiga Gaming | 58c | 527.01$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.26 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Winter Bear | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Nemiga Gaming | 60c | 477.67$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.07 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Nemiga Gaming | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Winter Bear | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Nemiga Gaming | 60c | 266.16$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.16 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…4fa6backed Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Winter Bear | 44c | 172.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Winter Bear | 13c | 137.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Winter Bear | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 122.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Winter Bear | 26c | 109.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Winter Bear | 25c | 109.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x420a…466cbacked Winter Bear | 42c | 61.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Winter Bear | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Winter Bear | 32c | 49.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…29b1backed Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 35.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 33.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…312fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 26.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…65c5backed Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.