Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
South Dakota vs. Denver
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84b29c6557c5a738e68d3129f90688d80c528599250d517d70170821d55937d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Denverof South Dakota, Denver
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked South Dakota | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa816…d58ebacked South Dakota | 79c | 98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…e142backed Denver | 24c | 62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…ee90backed Denver | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +202.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…3d7ebacked Denver | 21c | 49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f39…4b03backed South Dakota | 76c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81b…d6b4backed South Dakota | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…8b6fbacked South Dakota | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a95…5f79backed South Dakota | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad4…530bbacked South Dakota | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.