Fifa International · resolved market
Will Portugal win on 2025-09-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86f67c540608528f5db61617d056ba1890dbab92dd77519891666657cd8b7600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed No | 12c | 20,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 10c | 9,243$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.46 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 11c | 4,557$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.6 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 11c | 3,736$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.97 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 11c | 3,507$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.63 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 319 | 45.1%144 W · 175 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked No | 12c | 1,800$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 8c | 1,287$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 11c | 1,145$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 12c | 1,042$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 12c | 1,020$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 11c | 999.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 11c | 766.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed No | 12c | 399.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 11c | 349.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 12c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…fca1backed No | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portugal win on 2025-09-06?this page
- Will Armenia vs. Portugal end in a draw?No won
- Will Armenia win on 2025-09-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.