Euroleague · resolved market
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Virtus Bologna
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x882e7a45320250d1ef9b9201272c6d6adc5545a420d9b7cdfac0bae347cf4970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Munchenof FC Bayern Munchen, Virtus Bologna
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 54c | 504.13$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.9 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Virtus Bologna | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Virtus Bologna | 33c | 451.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.91 | 222 | 31.5%70 W · 152 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…4ca1backed FC Bayern Munchen | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Bayern Munchen | 65c | 225$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 343 | 44.3%152 W · 191 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Virtus Bologna | 33c | 186.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…3aedbacked Virtus Bologna | 37c | 176.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe042…5e6bbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 68c | 100.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e0…89acbacked Virtus Bologna | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1712…69b5backed FC Bayern Munchen | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…8197backed FC Bayern Munchen | 74c | 53.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…4dfbbacked Virtus Bologna | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed Virtus Bologna | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03c…2b90backed Virtus Bologna | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…bc30backed FC Bayern Munchen | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…48febacked FC Bayern Munchen | 65c | 27.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed FC Bayern Munchen | 66c | 25.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked FC Bayern Munchen | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 275 | 57.5%158 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.