Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
North Dakota State Bison vs. Montana Grizzlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88df14ab08784a112a369c633e504415628742e1ba319af2b4794acc69186814
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Dakota State Bisonof North Dakota State Bison, Montana Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked North Dakota State Bison | 40c | 1,408$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.85 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Montana Grizzlies | 60c | 810.13$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.53 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed North Dakota State Bison | 75c | 594.73$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Montana Grizzlies | 25c | 586.27$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.45 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked North Dakota State Bison | 38c | 262.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.91 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed North Dakota State Bison | 78c | 201.31$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked North Dakota State Bison | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked North Dakota State Bison | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 294 | 44.6%131 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Montana Grizzlies | 60c | 154$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Montana Grizzlies | 64c | 125.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Montana Grizzlies | 63c | 125.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…fc05backed Montana Grizzlies | 65c | 107$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7107…0ff8backed Montana Grizzlies | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Montana Grizzlies | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed North Dakota State Bison | 37c | 91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed North Dakota State Bison | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…a66abacked North Dakota State Bison | 36c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Montana Grizzlies | 61c | 52.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Montana Grizzlies | 62c | 52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…f3ddbacked North Dakota State Bison | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked North Dakota State Bison | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked North Dakota State Bison | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed North Dakota State Bison | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Montana Grizzlies | 26c | 45.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Montana Grizzlies | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed North Dakota State Bison | 36c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed North Dakota State Bison | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked North Dakota State Bison | 39c | 28.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.