Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Maria vs Volynets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8928cf1d7d7e4a9f65c236ba37c916c1ab5fd71b79e64e5638251a86634bc9ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Volynetsof Maria, Volynets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Volynets | 53c | 112.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Maria | 44c | 84.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Volynets | 47c | 76.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maria | 46c | 56.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Maria | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Maria | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c89…2db9backed Volynets | 42c | 35.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…6e96backed Maria | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Maria | 44c | 22.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Volynets | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Volynets | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Volynets | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Volynets | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Volynets | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Maria vs Volynetsthis page
- Maria vs. Volynets: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Ostrava Open: Tatjana Maria vs Katie VolynetsVolynets won
- Set Handicap: Volynets (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5)Volynets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.