South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-10-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a87babc89d01373234e0d59d470514ebe843db2645469bec6eac800332624d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 49c | 3,984$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.94 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 50c | 3,181$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.82 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 51c | 1,683$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.72 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1b…3539backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc94…dfbcbacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…ef6bbacked Yes | 51c | 981.37$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe993…f57dbacked Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +167.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfd…a801backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 54c | 292$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.74 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 51c | 173.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 51c | 127.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 73c | 123.52$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…4b78backed No | 50c | 120.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 52c | 72.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Yes | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 51c | 59.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 48c | 53.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 51c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed No | 52c | 47.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…4983backed Yes | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…aa7bbacked Yes | 45c | 23.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…c04ebacked Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eef…367fbacked No | 55c | 22.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-10-25?this page
- Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw?No won
- Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.