Tennis · resolved market
Hersonissos: Lukas Neumayer vs Alex Rybakov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aac43c3ba2bffb1d46b88ddf42f932406a73d39d26c05e90d7deee36fde9454
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lukas Neumayerof Lukas Neumayer, Alex Rybakov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Alex Rybakov | 7c | 12,000$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.08 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Alex Rybakov | 8c | 1,256$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Alex Rybakov | 20c | 1,145$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.74 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Alex Rybakov | 11c | 713.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Lukas Neumayer | 74c | 367.21$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Alex Rybakov | 4c | 365.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Alex Rybakov | 25c | 314.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Alex Rybakov | 24c | 297.25$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Alex Rybakov | 26c | 290.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Lukas Neumayer | 74c | 262$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Alex Rybakov | 49c | 205.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alex Rybakov | 17c | 147.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Alex Rybakov | 21c | 132.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 384 | 60.4%232 W · 152 L | +29.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Lukas Neumayer | 76c | 112.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Alex Rybakov | 24c | 108.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Lukas Neumayer | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Lukas Neumayer | 66c | 92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Alex Rybakov | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…ae69backed Lukas Neumayer | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Lukas Neumayer | 59c | 57.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Alex Rybakov | 22c | 47.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 211 | 72%152 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Lukas Neumayer | 76c | 42.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…04a2backed Lukas Neumayer | 58c | 38.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Alex Rybakov | 42c | 34.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Lukas Neumayer | 72c | 22.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…e2a2backed Lukas Neumayer | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 197 | 62.9%124 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Lukas Neumayer | 66c | 17.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hersonissos: Lukas Neumayer vs Alex Rybakovthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Neumayer vs RybakovNeumayer won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.