CS2 · resolved market
PGL Astana: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. G2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b6087a46265b61a72345ff7da186921a6bc17a2298136a99c86aa046b2ad13d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NIPof NIP, G2
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed NIP | 61c | 2,636$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed G2 | 39c | 1,332$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.4 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed G2 | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked G2 | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed NIP | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 422 | 57.3%242 W · 180 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed NIP | 60c | 182.38$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed G2 | 41c | 162$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…a0f0backed NIP | 66c | 140.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed G2 | 38c | 112.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…0167backed G2 | 42c | 103.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked NIP | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked G2 | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked G2 | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,146 | 49.4%566 W · 580 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked NIP | 59c | 61.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed NIP | 60c | 42.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc85…4d43backed NIP | 66c | 24.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.