Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Frech vs Li
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c23c48683ac65fa4d910b81f1b0271ef05c9d1eed64ee683f675689ff5b9970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liof Frech, Li
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Frech | 0c | 7,383$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Frech | 41c | 82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Li | 74c | 70.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Frech | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Frech | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x959a…2325backed Li | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Li | 55c | 38.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Li | 59c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…b022backed Frech | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Frech | 45c | 32.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…ad1ebacked Li | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…104bbacked Frech | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf4…0ae8backed Li | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…a9fcbacked Li | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Li | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…f860backed Frech | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…8bf3backed Frech | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…20e3backed Li | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8b…2f4ebacked Li | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…08d0backed Li | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944b…34e8backed Li | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98a…23f3backed Li | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Li | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…e68ebacked Li | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…9f7cbacked Li | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…7d6abacked Li | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa63…0454backed Li | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Li | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked Li | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Li | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1faa…c1f6backed Li | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…443ebacked Li | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67de…1d9bbacked Li | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Frech vs Lithis page
- Frech vs. Li: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Frech vs. Li: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Frech vs. Li: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Frech vs. Li: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Qatar Total Open: Magdalena Frech vs Ann LiLi won
- Set Handicap: Li (-1.5) vs Frech (+1.5)Li won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.